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COMMENTARY By Viktor Shlynchak
To choose a road, you have to know where you want to get to, Carrol's rabbit said. It seems that it is finally clear why Viktor Medvedchuk has sat for two years in the presidential administration, hurting his own image and, as a state servant, losing money...[ellipsis as published] Very soon, the main crisis manager of the main state office, judging from everything [going on], will try to achieve the dismissal of that government, [sitting] in Hrushevskyy Street [the Cabinet of Ministers]. Viktor Medvedchuk, who for a long time has not answered the blunt question: "where do you see yourself?", has, as the boxers say, "opened himself up". It is being planned that after political reforms are successfully introduced, Mr Medvedchuk will move into a parliamentary chair which is soon to be freed up by the new head of the Central Election Commission [CEC], Serhiy Kivalov. Why? To run the government!...[ellipsis as published] The main intrigue, as usual, was put into the mouth of [Ukrainian President] Leonid Kuchma. At the last press conference (in time, not in fact), the president announced that Viktor Yanukovych will remain the prime minister, "if there are no cataclysms". The first part of the answer can be let out the other ear. This because more than one prime minister has been promised his "untouchability", and then heads start rolling.
Indeed, the question is not so interesting for those linked to Donetsk. It is clear that the presidential rating of Yanukovych in great part is held up by the chair in which the potential presidential candidate sits. Even in case of an unsuccessful start in the presidential campaign, Yanukovych is counting on staying at the helm of the cabinet until 2006, that is, until a new parliament is elected. It is namely this idea which is written into the new clauses of the constitution, which is to come into force four months after political reforms are passed (in July-August). And most of the representatives of Donetsk Region found this very thing to be in their interests. Yanukovych's recent remarks testify to these intentions. However, such a scenario for the development of events is wholly unacceptable to Viktor Medvedchuk, since the personal influence of Mr Medvedchuk on "the processes" would shrink to nothing. The author and ideological mentor of political reform who has spent so much time, effort and energy on reformatting the centres of influence (trimming the powers of the president, which post could be won by [opposition leader Viktor] Yushchenko, and strengthening the roles of the prime minister and parliament) is quite unlikely to agree to being given the role of watching from the sidelines. And Medvedchuk is not likely to calmly watch as presidential powers slowly trickle over to prime minister Yanukovych. Therefore, Yanukovych's dismissal is, if not a question of life or death, at the very least, is a question of the utmost importance. The task, which is meant to "burn" Yanukovych, is being prepared in the very best traditions of political tricks. In the beginning, representatives of the United Social Democratic Party of Ukraine [USDPU, of Medvedchuk] started talking about the current prime minister as the "candidate from the incumbent powers" (we recall comments by [USDPU parliamentary faction leader] Leonid Kravchuk). The next move can be forecast. One should expect that behind outward, public (apparently sincere) support, pressure will be put on Mr Yanukovych and work planned to discredit him will be carried out (encouraged). The exacerbation of relations is most likely to be in the month of May. The most primitive way to explain the departure of the "single candidate from the majority" from the post of prime minister - is to announce, for example, "democratic" approaches to holding the presidential campaign. A fair game. Fair powers-that-be. The principled President [Leonid] Kuchma, who declines to interfere in the campaign (let them compete, lads!). The West will simply applaud such refinement. Perhaps they will even believe in the "not using administrative resources or positions". It is not even worth bothering about just who Viktor Medvedchuk will push into the prime minister's chair. It will be a figure loyal to the USDPU or a cleanly "technical" figure, who will have the chance to be prime minister until 2006. "The lucky one" could turn out to be Transport Minister Heorhiy Kyrpa or Defence Minister [Yevhen] Marchuk. In this way, Viktor Medvedchuk will get the chance to demonstrate "flying like an ace", taking the main opponents (that is, those from Donetsk) out of the government, while at the same time "hanging" the next president (whoever he may be). According to information to which Glavred is privy, there has already been a conversation between Viktor Medvedchuk and Serhiy Kivalov concerning the Odessa constituency which is to be freed up. Truthfully, the CEC manager has not yet sent in his official request to withdraw his MP authorities. And there is reason to believe he will "drag out" this procedure for as long as possible. Then the CEC will announce a date for an election in constituency No 136 (in August-September). And then the presidential election is just around the corner. Medvedchuk will quietly enter parliament, while at the same time creating a "pro-authorities" majority under his protege. And from within the parliament, he will carry out the celebrated "anti-crisis actions", directed against you-know-who. Leonid Kuchma has no place in this. But...[ellipsis as published] Is everything as smooth as butter? At first glance it looks just so. But in a few Donetsk headquarters serious work is already under way to keep in hand that which they have gripped and keep tasting that which they have tried. There are three ways to go:
agree with the opposition on supporting the prime minister, if the question of his dismissal is raised; and ignore political reform. The question of their future will be decided on what the "Donetsk people" choose. What partners does Medvedchuk have? If you play "in the dark", many. If card after card is displayed, then aside from the USDPU faction and 20 or so close MPs, he will have no-one to lean on. What to do? That's right. Another crisis. By the way, how is the weather on Tuzla? FOR PERSONAL AND ACADEMIC USE ONLY |
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