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Inside Ukraine Newsletter, Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, April 16, 2004
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KYIV - A newly completed public opinion poll by the Razumkov Center for
Political Studies tested the voter popularity of the presidential candidates
including front runners former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko and current
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
The poll questioned 2,020 respondents in all Ukrainian oblasts and major
cities and is said to have a margin for error of 2.3 percent.
Yushchenko's popularity rating so far as a potential vote-getter in the
presidential race remained the highest at 22.6 percent. However,
Yushchenko's ratings have shown no growth in some time and now show
a slight downward trend.
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Yanukovych has surged into the second place with a rating of 15.3 percent, a
quite remarkable showing considering that one year ago his rating was less
than 4 percent.
Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko also showed a downward trend,
with his rating now standing at 10.8 percent.
Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz gained a rating of 4.6 percent, with
all other candidates getting ratings of less than 4 percent.
The poll showed those unable to give an answer as to their current choice
for president at 14.5 percent while 10.8 percent stated their intent to cast
a ballot "against all." Another 7.9 percent said they would not cast a
ballot.
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In addition to rapid escalation of his popularity ratings, Yanukovych is
almost certain to profit from his continued control of the government,
including influencing disbursal of large amounts of funds that are said to
have been hidden in the 2004 state budget specifically for the purpose of
late-campaign use to influence votes through increased social payments to
pensioners and socially-deprived elements in the population.
The Our Ukraine faction claims that the funds secreted away in state
revenues
for campaign-time spending total in excess of 10 billion hryvnia, a little
less
than 2 billion US dollars, but that figure is unconfirmed.
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Also, the Donetsk political clans, to which Yanukovych owes allegiance, have
been further developing their business ties in Russia. Yanukovych seems very
well placed to gain the support of a majority of the approximately 1.5
million Ukrainian citizens who live and work in the Russian Federation.
Although it may sharpen its focus as the presidential campaign progresses,
at this time the Yushchenko campaign is said to suffer from the somewhat
unfocused statements of its candidate in relations to issues regarding
Ukrainian statehood, national priorities and historical and spiritual
heritage. Yushchenko's campaign themes seem so far to have failed to excite
immediate appeal and strong support from citizens concerned about their
standard of living and other economic issues.
There is also a strong suspicion that the new rules that force even greater
use of the Ukrainian language are designed to have a negative effect on the
Yushchenko campaign. The new rules are expected to be very unpopular in
those areas where Russian is the first language learned and commonly used,
thereby disadvantaging Yushchenko who is considered to be much closer to the
western Ukrainians who are much more likely to learn Ukrainian first and put
it to everyday use.
The presidential race will be hard fought but Yushchenko may find
Yanukovych's support from established political forces and his control of
government spending a hard combination to overcome.
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