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By Iryna Pohorelova
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 7 May 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, UK, May 10, 2004BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, May 11, 2004
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Viktor Yanukovych (AP file photo: Efrem Lukatskyu)
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Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has recently attempted to steal
the
opposition's clothes by speaking about the need for freedom of speech in
Ukraine, an opposition web site has said. He has also hinted at recalling
the Ukrainian troops from Iraq, clearly counter to President Leonid
Kuchma's policy regarding the USA.
Both of these developments are part of an attempt to guard himself against
dismissal by Kuchma as premier and being dropped as the single candidate
from the authorities at the presidential elections, the web site said.
The following is an excerpt from the article by Iryna Pohorelova entitled
"Probable - better than single, but worse than actual" published on
Ukrayinska Pravda web site on 7 May; subheadings inserted editorially:
On 6 May Prime Minister [Viktor] Yanukovych did everything necessary to
ensure that in the event of sudden dismissal he would appear to be the
victim of his own efforts "to create a political image for himself".
Not only his new press secretary [Hanna Herman], but also, mainly,
expressions about the need for freedom of speech and other, almost
oppositionist, rhetoric, intended to gain the sympathy of supporters of
democracy for the "single candidate from the authorities" will give him an
opportunity at the right time to quote the regime's displeasure with those
expressions.
Unfortunately, it is hard to find another motivation for such an about-turn
in the prime minister's image-making apart from forestalling dismissal.
After all, in the interview with Radio Liberty, which brought him his new
press secretary [Herman was Liberty bureau chief], he firmly backed the
model of behaviour proposed to him by [President Leonid] Kuchma: less talk,
more action.
But a few days later, his intentions apparently changed radically. To such
an extent that if one believes his aspiration to openness, one can start
expecting him almost to criticize Kuchma himself. And certainly an
assessment of events in Mukacheve [disputed mayoral election with
allegations of ballot rigging]. True, in Zhytomyr, where Yanukovych "stole a
march on the opposition" together with the former chief of the Kiev bureau
of Liberty regarding his inclination for media freedom, he once again kept
silent about Mukacheve. Perhaps he is relying on Prosecutor-General
[Henadiy] Vasylyev for now.
But at the same time, he did something different: he hinted to Kuchma that
in the event of a danger to his status as "the single candidate" he may turn
to support the opposition's idea of recalling the Ukrainian contingent from
Iraq. There were only a few votes short in parliament for a positive vote on
that issue, so the votes of Regions of Ukraine [party headed by Yanukovych]
will count here. Incidentally, the chairman of the parliamentary National
Security and Defence Committee, [Heorhiy] Kryuchkov, claims that a Supreme
Council [parliament] decision on this matter, if adopted, will not simply
remain a political statement, but will have direct legal implications for
the president.
Because that was how the law to send the contingent to Iraq was passed. For
the sake of appearances, Yanukovych sort of delivered "an ultimatum" to the
UN: take hold of the situation in Iraq more quickly. And even, again for the
sake of appearances, bravely "pressed" on the USA: we agreed on contracts
for restoration, so give.
But because Kuchma himself not that long ago stressed several times that we
"will not run away" from Iraq under any circumstances, Yanukovych's
ultimatums to the UN and the USA look strange. International policy is not
his prerogative and so he could be brave enough to "set up" Kuchma only if
there were extreme political circumstances for himself personally. But what
circumstances could those be apart from the threat of dismissal along with a
ll the ensuing consequences of the loss of prime ministerial rating and the
status of "the single candidate from the authorities".
Kuchma keeping Yanukovych in check
[Passage omitted: fallibility of opinion polls] It is obvious that polls
that call
Yanukovych "the most probable" future president, moreover through
administrative resources, but in no way through honest, transparent
elections (since at present most citizens intend to vote for [Our Ukraine
leader Viktor] Yushchenko), are a manipulation in particular by the
"pro-government coalition" in support of Yanukovych.
The "most probable", so it goes, is better than "the single one from the
authorities", since it is the position, albeit strained, of the voters that
is behind the first, while there is only intrigue behind the second
definition. Therefore "the single" can be based on "the most probable" and
not depend on the moods of the elite. But there are some unpleasant aspects
for Yanukovych in this generally interesting idea.
First, in this way proving along the way if not direct involvement in the
Mukacheve events, then an interest in them. After all, frankly they exerted
such influence on the electorate regarding possible election results, that
Yanukovych emerged among the "probable". Second, as a continuation of the
first, there is an extremely audacious demonstration of the fact that
administrative resources belong not to Kuchma, but precisely to Yanukovych.
And while Kuchma could have come to terms with a temporary rating of the
prime minister, no way could he accept claims to manage administrative
resources. Was it not out of jealousy of Yanukovych that Kuchma recently
issued a decree on social measures for Ukrainian poverty? Everything listed
in the decree, the prime minister himself intended to do for the sake of his
popularity, and even formally the decree was absolutely superfluous here.
But Kuchma did not forget to "seize the initiative" this time from the
"single one" and "the most likely one" so that the people should not get
confused about whence the manna from heaven falls. [Passage omitted:
fickleness of ratings]
Disputed election jeopardizes US ties
In a word, Yanukovych has every reason to hope for the best but prepare for
the worst. It seems that it was precisely for this reason that he started
talking about Iraq in a completely different tone than is permitted in
conditions of Kuchma's dependence on the USA. Perhaps he is counting on the
fact that if Kuchma is not frightened by his blackmail (fairly tangible but
not very subtle), then it will be possible to quote his mention of Iraq
among reasons for dismissal.
And the question of Iraq has indeed become a torment for Kuchma. And
exclusively because of Mukacheve. Before Mukacheve he himself could
blackmail the USA with his further support or lack of support for the
coalition.
At present, Washington, while making its traditional appeals for fair
elections, found it possible to suffer everything that was done in Ukraine
with the media, including [the ouster of] Radio Liberty and other
manifestations of the same traditional Ukrainian tyranny. But after
Mukacheve, this hypocrisy became extremely impressive even for the Bush
administration. And only Iraq still keeps it in contact with Kuchma.
And so, no further manipulations in the question of Iraq will be tolerated
here. Although they would have liked to, as was hinted at by [US State
Department official Steven] Pifer when sketching the difference in attitudes
to Ukraine between the administration and the Senate.
And so, Kuchma had to stop his games and virtually swear that the contingent
would remain untouched in Iraq. At the same time, he was dependent in this
issue on his former majority in parliament. Incidentally, not only Regions
of Ukraine may "undermine" the situation, but also someone from the
majority. Any one of them might find their reasons.
It is superfluous to recall that [presidential administration chief Viktor]
Medvedchuk put Kuchma in this position. It will not be superfluous to ask
how Kuchma intends to get out of it in order to regain the possibility of
further playing Iraq games with Washington. It would seem that the answer
was obvious: find those guilty of the Mukacheve events and, as all observers
are demanding without exception, punish them, proving that similar rigging
of the election results will not happen at the presidential elections.
[Passage omitted: inquiry into Mukacheve going slowly]
Perhaps Kuchma has not yet decided whom precisely to "appoint" as guilty?
[Passage omitted: more on that]
But if at the first sitting of the Supreme Council on 11 May there is
nothing definite for the security structures to report about Mukacheve,
Kuchma will have far greater chances of receiving a negative result on Iraq.
Especially against the background of the dreadful explosions [at ammunition
dump near Melitopol] in Zaporizhzhya Region.
President keeps options open
Experts are no longer hiding that the explosions may even have been
sabotage. [Passage omitted: speculating on possibility of terrorist act]
And so, this disaster may have a link with the question of Iraq in that the
Defence Ministry, while not having either the resources or the time to
ensure security directly in its patch in Ukraine, has the time and the
inspiration, as well as the money, for an operation in Iraq. [Passage
omitted: more speculation on this]
At any rate, the drama surrounding Melitopol covers everything. On the other
hand, Kuchma himself may beat Yanukovych to it and give the order to
whomsoever necessary to vote to recall the contingent from Iraq - and then
to vacillate over whether to fulfil the decision.
If he allowed Mukacheve to happen, then relations with the USA obviously
have almost no significance for him. The same with Europe - despite all the
European meditation. They simply get in the way of a third term according to
the scheme that is already virtually decided: by means of force. [Passage
omitted: irrelevance of renewed attempts at constitutional reform]
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