By Ilona Zayets, Ukrainian Glavred Web Site, April 14, 2004
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Apr 20, 2004

The appointment of Serhiy Tulub as fuel and energy minister may be considered a political one and help to strengthen the bond between the Donetsk group and the United Social Democrats, a web site has said. Some are saying that Tulub is no reformer and knows only about the coal industry, and also point to criticism of his performance as coal industry manager and head of the Enerhoatom state company for misuse of funds. Others point to a "pro-Russian" side to Tulub on fuel and energy issues and say he could prove a "counter-balance" to pro-European trends in the government's policy, the web site adds.

The following is the text of the article by Ilona Zayets entitled "Crisis manager from USDP" published on the Ukrainian Glavred web site on 14 April; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Social Democrats behind minister's appointment

The battle for the post of fuel and energy minister went on for over a month before ending in a victory for the president's Donetsk [business and political] group. Malicious tongues are saying that the main argument in favour of Serhiy Tulub's appointment to the ministerial post was thrown on to the president by the Social Democrats, who are currently interested in becoming allies with the Donetsk government.

Over these 40 or so days, more and more contenders for the post of fuel and energy minister were added to the list following predictions which were being made by President Leonid Kuchma and Stepan Havrysh, the coordinator of the parliamentary majority and head of the Democratic Initiatives group in parliament, according to whose quota they appoint the fuel and energy minister to a supposed coalition cabinet. Members of parliament and ordinary specialists from the Fuel and Energy Ministry were eliminated straightaway because the main predictions were that the future minister would hold more than one office.

Apart from the abundance of contenders, the problem over this appointment was that the Fuel and Energy Minister would have to work in tandem with the deputy prime minister. Since [Andriy] Klyuyev was appointed to this office quite recently, his resignation would appear (even despite the president's recent criticism of Klyuyev's work) importunate and would evoke sharp criticism among the Donetsk pro-government ranks.

At the same time, without Klyuyev's resignation, the appointment of any other non-Donetsk politician would mean a suspension of the work in this segment of the government. Although experts are saying that one should not expect any particular successes to follow from Tulub's appointment. Mr Tulub is no reformer. He is weak on everything except coal, and there is also the fact that when he was coal industry minister the striking miners accused him of burying the industry.

Tulub's career outlined

Serhiy Tulub was born in Donetsk and graduated from the polytechnic institute there. He began work as a rigger at the Kirovskaya pit of the Donetskvuhillya [Donetsk Coal] combine, and in the 1980s was already head of the Khartsyzk pit directorate of the Zhovtenvuhillya association (and also first secretary of the Khartsyzk Communist Party committee). In 1997 he went into regional administration, and from 1997 to 1998 was deputy head of the Donetsk regional administration.

Then he took up the office of coal industry minister. It is believed that in many ways Tulub is indebted to the support of the then governor of Donetsk Region, Viktor Yanukovych, for starting his career in state administration. At the same time Yanukovych's opinion of Tulub's character is also ambiguous.

Previously the prime minister had described him as "an independent, confident and even at times a disagreeable man". But he also said he was a responsible politician and a real patriot of the Donbass and Ukraine.

In short, one can describe Tulub as typical of Donetsk with a great many provisos. As a native of Donetsk, he effectively lobbied the interests of all businesses that were able to reach an agreement with him, regardless of their regional or party affiliation, in all the posts that he occupied until his present appointment. (Serhiy Tulub headed the Ukrainian Ministry of Fuel and Energy from December 1999 to June 2000. From August 2000 he was deputy secretary of the National Security and Defence Council.

On 5 June 2002 he was appointed president of the Enerhoatom state nuclear energy company) Tulub was noted for his especially warm attitude to the Social Democrats. In June 2000 he resigned from the post of minister precisely because he lobbied their interests. Another high-ranking patron of Tulub's is Defence Minister Yevhen Marchuk (it is believed that it was thanks to Marchuk that Tulub the summer before last was president of Enerhoatom).

Tulub's arrival "political"

What does the new appointment bring to Tulub himself, apart from the portfolio of a minister in a department where the main finances are already controlled by people the president needs? First of all, Tulub's arrival may be considered a political one. He sorts out the list of those who order the main, so to speak, background music.

This, it has become apparent, is the new bond between the Donetsk group and the [United] Social Democrats. And although in this tandem each component plays his own game, each party is trying to observe outward proprieties and kick towards the same goal. Many observers are convinced that this is only temporary, but no-one is presuming to give a specific timescale for this.

Meanwhile, none of the observers are claiming that Tulub's victory was a defeat for the alternative "team" of [Naftohaz Ukrayiny board chief Yuriy] Boyko and [ex-Fuel and Energy Minister Oleh] Dubyna, who were also forecast as a duo for the fuel and energy sector of the cabinet. "Everyone will do his own job", sources are claiming Kuchma said at a recent meeting with Yanukovych prior to Tulub's appointment.

The economic benefit is obvious only for Enerhoatom. As is known, the main controller of the "nuclear" means are the National Electricity Regulation Commission [NERC] and the Fuel and Energy Ministry. It was precisely from the NERC that Tulub suffered the last time. In July last year, the commission accused Enerhoatom, headed by the president, of the improper use of budget funds. Instead of directing funds to ensure the safety of atomic power stations in Ukraine, they said, the Enerhoatom bosses had used it to acquire flats, cars and other equipment. At the time the Fuel and Energy Ministry supported the claims of [NERC head Yuriy] Prodan against Tulub. Now there is no-one to support these claims.

Tulub a "counter-balance" to European policy

Moreover, analysts are noting a more pro-Russian side to the new minister on questions of the fuel and energy industry, and although he is not an independent individual in the government, he will provide a counter-balance to the European trends in the cabinet's policy where he can. And his initiatives will surely not go unnoticed in the Kremlin and will undoubtedly help to get its support for a presidential candidate from the authorities. At the moment this is expected to be Yanukovych.

As the director of the Sofia Social Research Centre, Andriy Yermolayev, claims, the most attractive option for the authorities, especially if the political reform fails, will be to promote the idea of a third term for president Kuchma. If this happens Yanukovych is in for a difficult time, because there could be a resignation of the government already in the summer, Yermolayev believes.

And so, Tulub's arrival means, first and foremost, that the president is for the moment not intending to give up the government's work for lost, and that a third term for Kuchma is too hypothetical a prediction. There is also the fact that the bond between the Donetsk group and the Social Democrats is becoming more solid. The question is, with what objective - to drown or hope to take part in a future victory parade.