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COMMENTARY by Yuri Scherbak
In 2004 in Ukraine the following will simultaneously be taking place: The seriousness of Ukrainian problems in 2004 will be characterized by twisted and difficult to forecast situations with each of the above points. The political reform, due to its incomplete nature and being aimed at serving the interests of a small group of people who want to remain in power, contains several dangerous points that are not yet fully comprehended by Ukrainian political circles. The reform was put together in haste, without a thorough, long term forecast of what its consequences might cause, destabilization of the system of power. It might be appropriate to compare it with a change in genetic code: changing a single part of it might create new, unseen before biological forms, including mutants not capable of living. It is not hard to foresee aggravation of the political reform battles in the Verkhovna Rada. In 2004 the Parliament will practically remain the only working branch of Ukrainian democracy, whose historical significance and responsibility to the people will increase drastically. One would want to believe that the pro-governmental majority will show responsibility for Ukraine's fate and abstain from passing the decisions aimed to please a group of people capable of anything to preserve their administrative and financial power. Let's hope that the opposition which suffered the series of defeats in 2003, will find more effective arguments to the current regime than the wailing of sirens and blocking podium in the Verkhovna Rada. Only well-thought of and intellectually brave initiatives, clearly understood by the whole society, will give the opposition a chance to be heard by the people. But the main thing is that the Verkhovna Rada will not fall prey to political provocations and will remain a normally working branch of the legislative power with significant controlling functions. Year 2004 gives the Verkhovna Rada the chance to become once again like in 1990-1991 the center of political life of the country, where the most important decisions are passed in an open and transparent manner. The course and nature of the presidential elections will largely depend upon whether or not the President, L. Kuchma, takes part. Passing by the Constitutional Court the unprecedented, lacking any legal logic and common sense, decision allowing L. Kuchma to be elected president for the third term might significantly worsen the situation in Ukraine, not to mention a highly negative reaction of the international community. We can only hope that the president himself will demonstrate political wisdom and keep his word not to seek reelection. The presidential campaign in Ukraine will lead to an increase in Russia's pressure on Ukraine: most of the candidates will flirt with Moscow, assuring brotherly friendship and creating the illusion of the pro-Russian stance of Kyiv with the purpose of getting support during the elections from the northern neighbor. The other thing is to what extent these assurances will be followed up after the elections. Yet, one cannot doubt that the harsh strategy of Moscow towards Ukraine which was continuously demonstrated in 2003 through the method of "whip and carrot" (the "whip" is the conflict over the Tuzla island in the Kerch bay; the "carrot" is the promises of a free-trade zone between the two countries), will only become tougher in 2004 when the agreement on Common Economic Space will need to be ratified, or when it is time to make the decision on the gas transportation consortium on Ukraine's territory. Analyzing the tough and coherent Russian policy towards Ukraine, one should keep in mind the ambitious geopolitical plan of Moscow to build (with Western, mainly US support) the world fuel and energy transportation "liberal" empire, the supplier of oil and natural gas to the USA, Japan, China, Turkey, and Western Europe. In such an empire, Ukraine would be a very important adjoining part on its South-Western borders. Ratification of the Common Economic Space agreements would be a serious sign of Ukraine's entering a new geopolitical formation which might ruin all plans of Euro-Atlantic integration. And what about the West, what is their response to the challenges of year 2004 regarding Ukraine? There is very limited maneuvering space considering the cold calmness (if not indifference) of the EU leaders to Ukraine. It may all end up with appeals for transparent elections in Ukraine, not more than that. The gradual warming up of the US-Ukraine relations since the Ukrainian peacekeepers have taken part in the Iraq campaign gives us a little more hope. The US support of Ukrainian attempts to join the NATO could become an important aspect of restoring the balance in the Central and Eastern European region. But strategically the USA has yet to determine more clearly their geopolitical vision of the future of Ukraine and of the Central and Eastern European region as a whole. And even though the presidential elections in the USA in 2004 make it a hardly suitable period for geopolitical projects, there is no time for hesitation. The loss of Ukraine as a strategic partner of the USA might have long-term negative consequences, the significance of which may not be fully realized until 2025-2030. But not everything is yet lost today: one only needs to reflect upon the situation that we have at the beginning of 2004, and make the responsible decisions regarding the future of Europe, so that it is not divided into empires and enemy blocs. EDITOR'S NOTE: Dr. Yuri Scherbak was born in Kyiv, Ukraine on October 12, 1934. He graduated from Kyiv Medical University in 1958, and has both Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees in epidemiology. He is a member of the National Academy on Environmental Sciences of Ukraine and honorable member of Scientific Studies Institute of Harvard University. Dr. Scherbak began his active political career in 1989 when he won a seat in the USSR Supreme Soviet, where he was a close associate of Dr. Andrei Sakharov. As an opposition leader and chairman of the subcommittee on energy and nuclear safety, Dr. Scherbak initiated and led the first parliamentary investigation of the Chernobyl accident and the nuclear catastrophes in Semipalatinsk and in the Urals. Never having been affiliated with the Soviet Communist Party, he founded and became the leader of the Ukrainian Green Movement (organization which united more than 500 Ukrainian NGOs) in 1988 (it became the Green Party in 1990). In 1991, he was appointed minister of environmental protection of Ukraine, and a member of the National Security Council. He was Ukraine's first Ambassador to Israel in 1992 and remained in that post until November, 1994, when he was appointed Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States. In 1997 he was appointed Ukraine's first ambassador to Mexico (concurrent with his service as Ambassador to the United States). In November 1998 Dr. Yuri Scherbak finished his duty as Ambassador to the United States and was appointed Adviser to the President of Ukraine on International Issues. From March 2000 till May 2003 Dr. Scherbak acted as Ambassador of Ukraine to Canada. Since 1993 he has a diplomatic rank - Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine. An eyewitness to the 1986 Chomobyl nuclear disaster, Dr. Yuri Scherbak wrote the sensational expose documentary novel "Chernobyl," which has been printed in most of the former Soviet republics and also in the West. The novel was published in English in 1989. Dr. Scherbak also has written extensively on the Stalinist man-made famine hi Ukraine in 1932-33. In 1998 Harvard University Press published Dr. Scherbak's book "The Strategic Role of Ukraine". As a writer, Yuri Scherbak is a well-known novelist who has authored 20 books of prose, plays, poetry, and essays and more than 200 publications and interviews on medical, ecological, political and historical issue. He is a member of Ukraine's Writer's Union and Cinematographers' Union, and was on the executive board of the Writers' Union from 1987 to 1989. He was been awarded medals and prizes in literature, medicine, and for his work as a Ukrainian statesman. Ambassador Scherbak and his wife, Maria, have two children. Comments about the Scherbak article are welcome to morganw@patriot.net. This article can be republished with credits to the author Yuri Scherbak, to "UKRAINE REPORT-2004" Number 10, and to the publisher, www.ArtUkraine.com Information Service (ARTUIS), Kyiv, Ukraine. |
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