Inside Ukraine Newsletter, Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, March 29, 2004

Armitage's primary goal appears to have been gaining assurances that Ukraine will not follow the lead of the new Spanish government that has said it will pull its troops out unless the United Nations takes over the occupation of Iraq.

However, behind all of the praise for Ukraine's troop support and economic progress, Armitage's statement about the U.S.' desire for "a fully productive" relationship with Ukraine was thought to mask sharp private criticism of the Kuchma regime.

Armitage delivered a letter from President Bush to Kuchma that is believed to include harsh language in regard to the shutting down or threatening of independent media outlets, particularly the targeting of radio stations that rebroadcast the U.S.-funded Radio Liberty, and the use of Tax Police and other administrative bodies to harass opposition leaders and their supporters.

For many months the conventional wisdom among political observers in Ukraine has been that the regime was relatively safe from U.S. criticism so long as it supported the war on terror and provided troops for the Iraqi occupation.

However, Inside Ukraine interviews in both Kyiv and Washington in connection with the Armitage visit have left the impression that, if Ukraine was ever safe from U.S. criticism and negative actions on aid and cooperation, major changes have now occurred in US policy.

Well-informed sources told IU that the Armitage visit is just the first of what will be a stream of high-level visitors from both the United States and the European Union during the presidential campaign.

Pressure on Ukraine to stop the repression of the news media and the use of administrative bodies to attack its enemies is expected to be ratcheted up and increasingly more public.

For Leonid Kuchma and top players in his regime, visits by U.S. and EU government officials and members of the U.S. Congress and the European Parliament are expected to become quite frequent. Visitors who want to deliver unwelcome messages are nothing new for the president and it is unclear just what effect the persistent in-person delivery of the pro-reform messages may be.

The main difference may come in the Kuchma regime's understanding that, unlike the previous Clinton administration, the Bush administration may be willing to back up strong words with strong actions. Stay tuned.