By Serhiy Solodkyy, Den, Kiev, in Ukrainian 7 Feb 04, p 1, 3
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Feb 11, 2004

The following is the text of an article by Serhiy Solodkyy, entitled: "Three levels of partnership. Ukraine and Poland have pinpointed their priorities" and published in Den on 7 February; subheadings inserted editorially:

Despite the fact that there are still nearly two months to go until the festivities to mark the opening of the Year of Poland in Ukraine, there have been certain trends in relations between the two states which will clearly have a major impact on cooperation between the two countries in the more long-term future. Firm guidelines for Ukrainian-Polish cooperation were set out during Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko's visit to Warsaw and Gdansk on 4-5 February. He arrived in Warsaw the same day as the government approved the decision on the "European" route of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline.

OIL PIPELINE TO BOOST BILATERAL COOPERATION

Poland, it seemed, was pleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian government's decision, but not because it did not want it. Many Polish analysts, it would seem, were prepared to once again "have a dig" at official Kiev for its Euro-Atlantic lack of consistency. "Oil will come to the West. A bold decision. Caspian oil will pour into Europe through the Odessa-Brody pipeline - the government in Kiev has decided. For us this will mean profits from the transit and less dependence on oil from Russia" - such was the reaction to the Ukrainian government's decision by the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza, which carried the subject of oil on its front page.

Eighteen months to two years ago, the Poles responded to any calls for cooperation over oil transportation with the studied formula: the project is a purely commercial one, so first let us have the figures and then we can talk about real cooperation. It was almost as though Warsaw did not believe in any possible profits from the pipeline.

It was only when the Polish strategists realized they could obtain at least triple profits from Poland's participation in the Odessa-Brody project (by extending the branch to Plock), that there was any sign of interest from the Polish side. In the first place, it was a question of funds for the transportation of the oil. Second, Poland thereby elevates its own status in the ranks of the European Union, which the country enters in May.

The Poles have a new way of revealing themselves in the role of an important component of "European Union" construction: over the past year Brussels has more than once publicly expressed interest in the project. The Poles realize that implementation of the Eurasian oil transport corridor project will help to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources. The Polish press notes that Poland now depends 95 per cent on Russian deliveries.

It may be supposed that the attention of Poland, and of the West as a whole, was roused after the Russian oil business also voiced its own interest in the Odessa-Brody pipeline. "The polemics about the reverse use played a positive role to some extent," Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko told Den. The minister also noted that the "choice of a direct European direction shows that Ukraine's overall orientation hasn't altered". He said that the question of Ukraine's latest government decision had been raised at virtually all the meetings with the Polish leadership. It is hard to imagine what the results of his visit to Poland would have been if Kiev had approved the decision in favour of reverse use.

Incidentally, in private conversations the Poles noticed two other positive things which Hryshchenko brought with him to Warsaw: the Supreme Council [parliament] approved amendments to the draft constitutional changes, taking into account the advice of the Venice Commission, and President Leonid Kuchma said that he would not be standing at the coming elections. The Polish side could not hide its satisfaction.

"The Ukrainian government has taken a very important decision. It also attaches practical importance to contacts at the level of businessmen who are linked to the implementation of this project," Polish Foreign Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz said. He also added that "now is the time to take more practical actions, and this is also a reason to reopen talks with the European Union on its more specific participation in this project".

The Polish mass media is saying that approximately by the middle of March a joint Ukrainian-Polish enterprise will be set up which will seek investments to complete the construction of the pipeline from Brody to Plock. The Poles were so struck by this future oil cooperation that it seems they are starting to form hypothetical plans connected with the Eurasian oil transport corridor.

The deputy director of Naftoport in Gdansk, Andrzey Radzikowski, told Den about the possibility of Caspian oil deliveries to the United States. "At the initial stage, of course, this option will require considerable capital investment, but then all expenses will be compensated for," he believes. The businessman said that Russia's Yukos, which delivers crude oil to America, has been cooperating with Gdansk's Naftoport.

The "European" route of the Odessa-Brody pipeline, it would seem, is not simply a sub-text to the geographical route, but to the political one, too. Ukrainian diplomats claim that the recent government decision could have a direct effect on the state's integration process into the European and Euro-Atlantic structures. If Ukraine becomes a part of the European energy system, this will turn the country, if not into an integral, then at least into an important part of interaction with the EU.

Kiev is also hoping that close cooperation with Poland will help in the European integration process. "It is important for us that Ukraine remains a defining element in Poland's eastern policy," Kostyantyn Hryshchenko believes. "Poland is demonstrating today that it is able to uphold its own opinion at the EU. It is also our nearest neighbour. It would not be to our advantage if we did not work with it and did not extend the experience we have acquired," the minister is convinced.

UKRAINE, POLAND WORKED EFFECTIVELY IN IRAQ

Kiev and Poland have already shown that they can work together effectively by being a part of the stabilization forces in Iraq. It would seem that Ukraine and Poland do not want to stop there. Statements from both sides show there is joint interest in cooperation in the rebuilding of Iraq. Kostyantyn Hryshchenko, in particular, pointed out that "the situation in Iraq will only improve when the existing security measures are followed by actual projects of Polish and Ukrainian companies who could show the Iraqis that their lives are beginning to improve".

For his part, Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, replying to journalists' questions about whether Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in Iraq was discussed at the recent meeting of the Polish and US presidents, said: "President Kwasniewski has traditionally done everything at these talks to support Ukraine, so that it should feel comfortable both in the circle of European states and in the context of Euro-Atlantic cooperation."

It is clear that in their search for contacts in Iraq, Ukraine and Poland are both rivals and partners, particularly as Warsaw cannot as yet boast any substantial achievements in the work to rebuild Iraq. Not so long ago, the Polish firm Bumar lost a very big tender for the equipping of 27 battalions of the future Iraqi army to an American company.

What actually would be gained from Ukrainian-Polish cooperation? If, for example, Polish businessmen won a tender for the rebuilding of a facility in Iraq, but in so doing they required specialists in a certain sphere, they could then turn to their Ukrainian counterparts for assistance. The same applies to possible Ukrainian "fellow competitors" for Iraqi contracts.

There would obviously be no obligations in such agreements, and they would be carried out purely on the principles of mutual interest. As Hryshchenko told Den, the Poles reacted very positively to the possibility of such cooperation.

COOPERATION IMPORTANT IN NATO MEMBERSHIP BID

Cooperation between Kiev and Warsaw is also important in the context of Ukraine's desire to join NATO. Polish membership of the alliance obviously does not play a decisive role in the organization's decision-making process, but the leadership of a neighbouring country, on the one hand, could prompt their Ukrainian opposite numbers as to what needs more attention when it comes to putting Euro-Atlantic aspirations into practice, and on the other supporting where necessary the elevation of the level of Ukraine's relations with NATO, and then - entry.

Cimoszewicz called for raising cooperation between Ukraine and the alliance. Hryshchenko, speaking to Den, reaffirmed: "In Poland they believe that we have real opportunities to move forward as far as we can. The recent decisions in Ukraine have had a positive effect on such arguments."

Will the desired raising of the level of cooperation between Kiev and Brussels come about? Will Ukraine be able to start fulfilling the action plan for membership in NATO this year? Many commentators point to the fact that much will depend on how the presidential campaign in Ukraine develops. Undoubtedly, Kiev's achievements in reforming its armed forces and its participation in the coalition forces in Iraq will be taken into account.

Incidentally, it is going around in Warsaw that the next NATO summit will be devoted to the problems of Iraq, in particular the alliance's possible participation in the country's stabilization. If you take into account the high assessment which the NATO members are giving to the Ukrainian peacekeepers, then the chances of raising the level of interaction along the Kiev-Brussels line can only improve.

The presidents of Poland and Ukraine will soon be preparing to add stimulus to bilateral relations; a meeting between Leonid Kuchma and Aleksandr Kwasniewski is planned for 12 February in Gdansk.