By Peter Baker
Washington Post Foreign Service
The Washington Post, Washington, D.C.
Friday, April 16, 2004; Page A18

With the president previously committed to stepping down this fall after two terms and 10 years in office, a struggle has erupted for control of this nation of nearly 50 million. Independent radio stations have been yanked off the air. Non-governmental groups report harassment. And opposition leaders call this the most significant moment for Ukrainian democracy since the country emerged from the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

"For all these years, we haven't had such a critical point," said Yulia Tymoshenko, a former deputy prime minister and a prominent opposition leader. "It will not be an election, it will be a war. This circle around the president doesn't even want to think they might lose power. They will try to keep it at any price."

The other side denies any attacks on democracy and castigates the opposition for simply seeking power. But Kuchma's allies agree with their rivals on one thing: As Stepan Havrich, leader of the pro-Kuchma parliamentary majority bloc, put it, "The struggle for the president's post is going to be very acute."

Defying enormous pressure from Kuchma's camp, the parliament last week narrowly rejected proposed constitutional amendments that would have eliminated direct election of the president and effectively allowed him to control succession.

Stung by the setback, Kuchma moved this week to quell growing discontent within his ruling bloc by designating Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych as his choice for successor Yanukovych, a loyalist appointed in 2002, would represent Kuchma's majority coalition as a single consensus candidate in the Oct. 31 election.

The move puts pressure on the fractious opposition to rally behind a single candidate, according to lawmakers and analysts. But so far, former prime minister Viktor Yushchenko, the country's most popular politician and front-runner in campaign polls, has yet to unify the various parties that oppose Kuchma, according to Tymoshenko and others.

"Yushchenko hasn't managed to send signals to society what will happen if he came to power," said Maryna Pyrozhuk, a journalist at Radio Liberty, who cited issues of press freedom, education and health care. "No one can tell what will happen. The struggle goes on, but no one sees a clear message so the electorate can compare arguments."

Yushchenko says he wants to bring his potential coalition together now after the success in beating back the constitutional amendments. "The question is how is it possible for democratic forces to get prepared for the election and come out with a united, solid program," he said in an interview.

Kuchma, a former Soviet factory director, presides over a country torn between historic ties to Russia and aspirations of joining the rest of Europe. Foes accuse him of running a corrupt system dominated by business tycoons. Audiotapes smuggled out of the country by a former bodyguard have linked Kuchma to the killing of an opposition journalist and to illegal arms sales to Iraq when Saddam Hussein was in power. Kuchma denies the charges.

Domestic and international critics contend that Kuchma is pushing Ukraine toward authoritarian rule. Most broadcast media are controlled by groups loyal to Kuchma. U.S.-funded Radio Liberty lost its FM frequency in February in a move journalists said was orchestrated by the government. The network now broadcasts on short wave and has lost 60 percent of its audience.

Kuchma supporters also have targeted nongovernmental organizations, particularly those funded by billionaire Soros, whose Open Society Institute promotes civil society and democratic institutions by funding human rights organizations and independent newspapers. Kuchma supporters accuse them of trying to instigate a change in power as they did in Georgia last fall, but Soros charges that the president's office is using its media outlets to wage a smear campaign against him.

Kuchma's drive to rewrite the constitution drew criticism from U.S. and European officials, who said it would have damaged Ukraine's democratic institutions. Under Kuchma's plan, the president would be picked by parliament rather than voters, leaving the choice in the hands of his allies who control the legislature. The proposal received 294 votes, just six shy of the two-thirds needed in the 450-member parliament.

Although the vote failed, Kuchma split the opposition. Communists and socialists supported the changes, breaking on the issue with allies in Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc and Tymoshenko's bloc, both of which support democratic and market reforms.

Yushchenko's chances of bringing all four factions back together behind his candidacy appear slim. In an interview this week, Communist leader Petro Symonenko blasted Yushchenko for opposing the constitutional plan, comparing Our Ukraine's ideology to "Italian fascism and German Nazism." Symonenko appears poised to run.

Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz also expressed bitterness toward Yushchenko. If Yushchenko does not change his view on the constitutional plan, Moroz said in an interview, "I don't see any opportunity to unite the opposition." In that case, Moroz added, "I will have to run."