All available evidence suggests that Viktor Medvedchuk, currently head of
the Presidential Administration and the real mastermind of almost all latest
Kuchma moves, would prefer to prolong his political longevity as either
prime minister or head of the parliament.
Viktor Yushchenko, inspired by his high political rating and the support of
followers from both Ukraine and overseas, would like not only to be elected
president but to see presidential powers unchanged from those currently
enjoyed by the incumbent.
Political newcomers from the Donetsk clan, notorious for their accumulation
of huge financial resources, are intent on extending their local influence
to the whole country. To do this, they need a powerful leader in an official
position who will take care of their ever-increasing appetites.
The leftists, Communists and Socialists who have developed party networks in
regions, are concentrating their efforts on strengthening the influence of
their parliamentary factions on the executive branch and future gains in the
Rada elections in 2006.
Numerous deputies that were elected from majority districts which they
regard as baronial manors are most concerned about the possibility that
strict proportional election procedures would rob them of their Rada
membership, the immunity for prosecution bestowed by their deputy privileges
and the influence their regional power gives under whoever is president or
prime minister.
Naturally, it is extremely difficult to reconcile all of these overlapping
and contradictory claims on power, particularly since the power of the
president as an arbiter would be greatly diminished under the reform plans.
Some fear, probably with very good reasons, that a weakened presidency
would turn the parliament into a permanent battle zone, even more fractious
than it is today.
These cross currents of the battles for power, somewhat muted and subsurface
in the past, have now flared into the open. For example, on Monday, March
22, journalists were privy to a clash between Lytvyn and Havrysh over
procedures the parliament will follow in consideration of the proportional
election law. Lytvyn proposed to postpone the vote until it is thoroughly
examined by deputies, perhaps a week or even longer. Havrysh claimed that
everything was already in hand to endorse the election law draft on
Thursday, March 25.
On Tuesday, an extraordinary meeting of the Rada conciliatory council lasted
for more than two hours and agreed to consider the election bill on Thursday
and Friday so that it could be adopted as a whole. For this purpose, in
their view, the corresponding Rada plenary meetings could last until
midnight. However, even this provision cannot give enough time to consider
all 972 amendments introduced to the bill by deputies.
If the election bill is approved, then comes the potentially months long
process of adopting the reform amendments to the constitution. Many
deputies, particularly those opposed to the reforms, will demand an
article-by-article consideration of the amendments. This procedure is
designed trigger a domino effect under which a failure to approve any single
point could lead to a blockage of the whole bill. With so many varied points
at issue affecting so many individual causes and fortunes, the chances for
chaos and legislative gridlock become almost palpable.
The coming legislative days will take on much of the drama and importance of
that period when the constitution was originally approved.
The big difference is that then there was considerable technical help from
interested parties outside Ukraine and a sense of national purpose. With the
current constitutional reform efforts, there are merely the political and
financial interests fighting with a blood lust to save their political
fiefdoms and their financial fortunes. The possibility for bloodletting,
both metaphorical and real, is enormous.
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