January 23, 2003

According to the January forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, in Washington, D.C. Ukraine will likely move from third to fourth place among the world's largest exporters of wheat as Russia's exports of wheat are projected to increase from 7.5 million tons, to 9.5 M. tons, ProAgro sources told Ukrinform.

According to the USDA's estimates, in the 2002/2003 marketing year Ukraine is expected to produce 21 million tons of wheat, which will be 0.3 tons down from the previous marketing year.

The USDA's forecasts of Ukraine's exports of wheat have not changed since November 2002 and stand at nine million tons, but Russia has moved Ukraine out of third place. Last marketing year Ukraine exported 5.5 M. tons of wheat.

As sources with the Ukrainian Ministry for Agrarian Policies believe, in the 2002/2003 season Ukraine will likely export a total of 12 million tons of grain, harvested in 2002.

The Russian Ministry for Agriculture has stated 2002's yield of grain at 86.5 M. tons, including 50.6 million tons of wheat, which is post-Union Russia's record-high and which has allowed Russia to lower its imports of grain by 25.4 percent.

In Kazakhstan, another major grain producer, grain has been exported to 37 nations, including Ukraine. In 2002 a total of 51,000 tons of Kazakh grain was imported by Ukraine.

According to the USDA's forecast for 2003, as much as 24 million tons of wheat grain may be exported by former CIS countries, of which amount Ukraine is expected to export nine million tons of wheat, Russia about 9.5 million tons and Kazakhstan around 5 M. tons. Just two years ago, these nations' total exports of wheat were about 5 M. tons.

As experts now view the situation, the various forces that exist today on the global market of grain, wheat in particular, will radically change its buying and selling structure.

In view of low prices for East European wheat, the EU, even if its member-nations reap record-high harvests this year, will massively import wheat from East Europe.

The CIS wheat producers mainly export wheat to EU countries, North Africa, the Middle East. Asia and Latin America have recently emerged as large potential buyers of CIS wheat.

However, as many experts believe, until stable production of wheat has been attained, there won't be stability in the CIS nations' exports of wheat.