WINNIPEG, MANITOBA, CANADA - More production and competition will mean lower prices for Canadian wheat farmers in 2003-2004, delegates to the annual Grain World Conference of the Canadian Wheat Board heard yesterday, reported the Financial Post on February 25, 2003.

Part of that increased competition comes from Ukraine, a "new" player which is actually one of the oldest, said a representative who made a presentation on his country's plans for the future.

"One hundred and fifty years ago Ukraine was the breadbasket of Europe," said Leonid Kozachenko, in an interview. "We were delivering almost 40% of the grain exports all over the world."

Mr. Kozachenko is president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, an umbrella non-governmental organization of farm business associations.

ArtUkraine.com said that Mr. Kozachneko served previously as a Vice- Prime Minister in Ukraine over the agroindustrial complex and has also been active in private agribusiness companies.

With agrarian reform that includes a return to private land ownership and an aggressive approach to trade, Kozachenko said the world can expect Ukraine will re-emerge as a major player. By 2005, he expects Ukraine's total annual grain exports to hit 15 million tonnes, most of that in wheat.

This crop year, the return of Eastern Europe in a big way to the export market had a dampening effect on prices that had been climbing sharply. In 2002-2003, Russia edged out Canada's anemic, drought-parched 9.7 million tonnes of wheat exports with its more than 10 million tonnes.

But Ukraine also slipped into the list of top exporters with its 8.5 million tonnes, edging out Argentina, which saw production slip sharply.

Russia, with a much greater domestic demand, isn't expect to maintain it's position among the world's major exporters, but Mr. Kozachenko said he doesn't see why Ukraine cannot, wrote the Financial Post in Canada.

And that means a new ball game as far as the world's wheat buyers and sellers are concerned.

"You've got more suppliers competing for lower demand, which is certainly setting up to be a more competitive situation," said Dwayne Lee, a market analyst for the Canadian Wheat Board.

In its first pool return outlook for the 2003-2004 crop year -- a prediction of what farmers will get for the wheat and barley they sell through the board -- wheat has fallen $30-$60 a tonne from the January 2002-2003 outlook.

Durum is down $30-$55 a tonne, feed barley has slipped $41 a tonne and malting barley is down $32-$36 a tonne.